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Navad Urmia vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
F. Asadi 34' (pen)
F. Hosseinkhani 43'
11/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia29%
×Draw37%
Mes Kerman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.70
Mes Kerman
0.78

Mes Kerman creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
66%
Navad Urmia or Mes Kerman
63%
Draw or Mes Kerman
71%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
8%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
50%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
16%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
46%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
29%
level
37%
Mes Kerman scores more
34%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
F. AsadiPenalty
43'
F. Hosseinkhani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Navad Urmia 1–1 Mes Kerman

Navad Urmia and Mes Kerman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 10, 2019.

Goals: F. Asadi (34' pen), F. Hosseinkhani (43').

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.