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Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
P. Miri 64'
12/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mes Kerman50%
×Draw34%
Navad Urmia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.05
Navad Urmia
0.45

Mes Kerman creates 133% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
84%
Mes Kerman or Navad Urmia
66%
Draw or Navad Urmia
50%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
21%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
65%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
28%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
9%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
36%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
76%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
50%
level
34%
Navad Urmia scores more
16%

Mes Kerman at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
P. Miri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 1–0 Navad Urmia

Mes Kerman beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 16, 2020.

Goals: P. Miri (64').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.