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Navad Urmia vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
S. Sadeghian 43'
12/12/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia31%
×Draw34%
Esteghlal Khuzestan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.83
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
65%
Navad Urmia or Esteghlal Khuzestan
66%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
69%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
10%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
56%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
20%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
59%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
22%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
47%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.97 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
31%
level
34%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
35%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
S. Sadeghian

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navad Urmia 1 – 0 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Navad Urmia beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2019.

Goals: S. Sadeghian (43').

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.