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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
0 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
8/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan54%
×Draw31%
Navad Urmia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.18
Navad Urmia
0.47

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 151% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 46 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
85%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Navad Urmia
69%
Draw or Navad Urmia
46%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
24%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
69%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
12%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
37%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
78%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
54%
level
31%
Navad Urmia scores more
15%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Navad Urmia

Esteghlal Khuzestan and Navad Urmia drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.