Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Navad Urmia vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
3 – 1
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
4/4/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navad Urmia47%
×Draw29%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.24
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.80

Navad Urmia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 15 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.67

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
76%
Navad Urmia or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
71%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
53%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
21%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
71%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
35%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
13%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
55%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
19%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
66%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
47%
level
29%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
24%

Navad Urmia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Navad Urmia beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia).