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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
1 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
11/17/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC40%
×Draw38%
Navad Urmia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.82
Navad Urmia
0.53

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 63 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Navad Urmia
1.08

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
78%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Navad Urmia
62%
Draw or Navad Urmia
60%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
13%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
56%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
20%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
5%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
41%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
10%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
64%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.82

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
40%
level
38%
Navad Urmia scores more
22%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1–0 Navad Urmia

Arvand Khorramshahr FC beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).