Nautico Recife 2–1 Figueirense: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Figueirense

Jean Mangabeira 39'

Victor Ferraz 30'

Gustavo França 60'

7/15/2023

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nautico Recife51%

×Draw27%

Figueirense22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.85

Nautico Recife

1.44

Figueirense

0.85

Nautico Recife creates 69% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 57 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

0.81

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.70

Figueirense

0.89

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.81

Figueirense

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

78%

Nautico Recife or Figueirense

73%

Draw or Figueirense

49%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

25%

Figueirense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

76%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

42%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

18%

Figueirense 1+ goals

57%

Figueirense 2+ goals

21%

Figueirense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

70%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.70 + Figueirense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Figueirense attack 0.89 + Nautico Recife defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

51%

level

27%

Figueirense scores more

22%

Nautico Recife at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

39'

41'

44'

45+1'

46'

55'

Bruno General← Renan Bernabé

55'

Gustavo França← Dudu

59'

Bryan← Berguinho

59'

Danilo Cardoso← Denílson

60'

Gustavo França

64'

Elias

72'

Nicolas← Andrew

72'

Vinicius Nucci← Raí

75'

Diego Ferreira← Victor Ferraz

75'

Elton← Gabriel Santiago

79'

Thiaguinho← Jeam

90+3'

Gledson

90+3'

Paul Villero

90+4'

Thiaguinho

Nautico

Figueirense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

59'▲Bryan←▼Berguinho

59'▲Danilo Cardoso←▼Denílson

75'▲Diego Ferreira←▼Victor Ferraz

75'▲Elton←▼Gabriel Santiago

79'▲Thiaguinho←▼Jeam

Nautico Recife substitutes

BryanCardosoFerreiraEltonThiaguinhoLopesSantosCarvalhoLealWesleyLeo

Manager: Paulo Baier

46'▲Cesinha←▼Otávio Gut

55'▲Bruno General←▼Renan Bernabé

55'▲Gustavo França←▼Dudu

72'▲Nicolas←▼Andrew

72'▲Vinicius Nucci←▼Raí

Figueirense substitutes

CesinhaGeneralFrançaNicolasNucciGonçalvesAndreySouzaPeixoto

Serie C: Nautico Recife 2–1 Figueirense

Nautico Recife beat Figueirense 2-1 in Serie C on July 15, 2023.

Goals: Victor Ferraz (30'), Jean Mangabeira (39'), Gustavo França (60').

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Nautico Recife vs Figueirense — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Nautico Recife 2–1 Figueirense