Nautico Recife 1–0 Figueirense: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Figueirense

Dadá Belmonte 76'

9/2/2020

Serie B · Round 7Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Nautico Recife44%

×Draw27%

Figueirense29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Nautico Recife

1.35

Figueirense

1.05

Nautico Recife creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 49 away

1.34

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.34

Figueirense

0.90

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.21

Figueirense

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

71%

Nautico Recife or Figueirense

73%

Draw or Figueirense

56%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

20%

Figueirense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

74%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

39%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

15%

Figueirense 1+ goals

65%

Figueirense 2+ goals

28%

Figueirense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

60%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 71 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.34 + Figueirense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Figueirense attack 0.90 + Nautico Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

44%

level

27%

Figueirense scores more

29%

Nautico Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Rhaldney

Nautico Recife · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

Camutanga← Rafael Ribeiro

46'

Jhonnatan← Matheus Trindade

46'

Gabriel Lima← Keké

46'

Paulo Ricardo← Arouca

62'

Matheus Neris

65'

Thiago← Erick

65'

G. Paiva← Salatiel Júnior

65'

Dadá Belmonte← Jorge Henrique

67'

Lucas← Diego Gonçalves

70'

Elyeser← Matheus Neris

76'

Dadá Belmonte↳ Thiago

81'

Sanchez Costa

87'

Gabriel Barbosa← Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoFigueirense

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots7

4Corners7

16Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots7

2On Target0

9Off Target4

5Blocked3

7Inside Box6

9Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

383Total Passes283

307Accurate Passes213

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls19

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Figueirense

Nautico Recife beat Figueirense 1-0 in Serie B on September 2, 2020.

Goals: Dadá Belmonte (76').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Aflitos in Recife.

Nautico Recife vs Figueirense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Figueirense