Nautico Recife 0–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Waguininho 6'

3/22/2026

Serie B · Round 1Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nautico Recife40%

×Draw29%

Criciuma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.04

Nautico Recife

1.22

Criciuma

1.04

Nautico Recife creates 17% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 90 away

1.32

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.32

Criciuma

0.88

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Criciuma

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

69%

Nautico Recife or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

60%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

17%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

70%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

34%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

12%

Criciuma 1+ goals

65%

Criciuma 2+ goals

28%

Criciuma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

56%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Criciuma defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Criciuma attack 0.88 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

40%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

31%

Nautico Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Waguininho

Criciuma · F

7.7

Match Events

6'

Waguininho↳ Marcelo Hermes

19'

34'

35'

38'

46'

Betao← Igor Fernandes

46'

Leo Jance← Yuri

46'

Diego Goncalves← R. Otero

46'

Thiaguinho← Eduardo

50'

Samuel

57'

Willean Lepo← Marcinho

60'

Bruno Alves

63'

Felipe Cardoso← Juninho

69'

Fellipe Mateus← Jean Irmer

71'

Ramon← Vitinho

73'

Joao Carlos← Jhonata Robert

79'

Rosa← Dodo

82'

Thiaguinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCriciuma

Overview

63%Possession37%

2Total Shots2

0.03Expected Goals (xG)0.43

1Corners0

2Fouls1

Shots

2Total Shots2

0On Target1

1Off Target1

1Blocked0

1Inside Box2

1Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

32Total Passes19

23Accurate Passes14

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

2Fouls1

Serie B: Nautico Recife 0–1 Criciuma

Criciuma beat Nautico Recife 1-0 in Serie B on March 22, 2026.

Goals: Waguininho (6').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (63%) and registered 2 shots to 2.

The match was played at Aflitos in Recife.

Nautico Recife vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Nautico Recife 0–1 Criciuma