Nautico Recife 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Criciuma

Bruno Bispo 44'

Léo Costa 32'

6/29/2022

Serie B · Round 15Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nautico Recife40%

×Draw29%

Criciuma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.04

Nautico Recife

1.22

Criciuma

1.04

Nautico Recife creates 17% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 90 away

1.32

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.32

Criciuma

0.88

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Criciuma

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

69%

Nautico Recife or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

60%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

17%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

70%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

34%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

12%

Criciuma 1+ goals

65%

Criciuma 2+ goals

28%

Criciuma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

56%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Criciuma defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Criciuma attack 0.88 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

40%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

31%

Nautico Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Bruno Bispo

Nautico Recife · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Wellington

10'

Carlão← Wellington

13'

Matheus Nascimento

32'

Léo Costa↳ Fellipe Mateus

44'

Bruno Bispo

46'

Julio← Amarildo

46'

Cristovam← Claudinho

51'

Lucas Xavier

57'

Richard Franco

58'

Hygor← Lucas

61'

Junior Tavares← Geuvânio

61'

Juninho Carpina← Nascimento

63'

João Paulo

72'

R. Bressan← Rômulo

72'

Thiago Alagoano← Fellipe Mateus

76'

Arilson

78'

Júlio Rodrigues

81'

Hélder← Hygor

84'

João Lucas← Pedro Vitor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCriciuma

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots19

2Corners9

18Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots19

4On Target3

4Off Target12

4Blocked4

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

223Total Passes263

119Accurate Passes172

53%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Serie B: Nautico Recife 1–1 Criciuma

Nautico Recife and Criciuma drew 1-1 in Serie B on June 29, 2022.

Goals: Léo Costa (32'), Bruno Bispo (44').

Criciuma controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Nautico Recife vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Nautico Recife 1–1 Criciuma