Nautico Recife 2–1 Brasil DE Pelotas

Nautico Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Brasil DE Pelotas

Jean Carlos 32', 10'

Ramon 2'

7/22/2021

Serie B · Round 13Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nautico Recife46%

×Draw28%

Brasil DE Pelotas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

Nautico Recife

1.35

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.94

Nautico Recife creates 44% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

0.68

1.20

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.68

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

74%

Nautico Recife or Brasil DE Pelotas

72%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

54%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

22%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

74%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

39%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

15%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

61%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

24%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

64%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.68 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

46%

level

28%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

26%

Nautico Recife at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jean Carlos

Nautico Recife · M

9.3

Match Events

2'

Ramon

10'

Jean Carlos↳ Vinícius

32'

Jean Carlos

48'

Luiz Henrique← Rhaldney

49'

L. Camilo

67'

Jarro Pedroso← Netto

67'

Wesley← Rômulo

67'

Fabrício← Ramon

69'

Lucas Paraíba← Marciel

69'

Giovanny← Djavan

78'

L. Paraiba

79'

Renatinho← Gabriel

80'

Lucas Santos← Denílson

81'

Matheus Carvalho← Jean Carlos

81'

Breno← Rafinha

90+3'

L. Paraiba

90+3'

L. Paraiba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoBrasil

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots4

8Corners2

20Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots4

6On Target1

10Off Target3

8Blocked0

11Inside Box3

13Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

415Total Passes263

347Accurate Passes173

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2