Brasil DE Pelotas 3–2 Nautico Recife

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nautico Recife

Leandro Camilo 90+3'

Renatinho 61' (pen), 5'

Junior Tavares 87'

Vinícius 28'

10/29/2021

Serie B · Round 32Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas46%

×Draw29%

Nautico Recife25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.82

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.24

Nautico Recife

0.82

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

0.91

creates per match

0.74

0.91

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.91

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.91

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

75%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Nautico Recife

71%

Draw or Nautico Recife

54%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

21%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

71%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

35%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

13%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

56%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

20%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

65%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 47 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.91 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

46%

level

29%

Nautico Recife scores more

25%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Renatinho

Brasil DE Pelotas · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

Renatinho

14'

Patrick

28'

Vinícius↳ Caio Dantas

31'

Sousa

46'

J. Murillo← Jailson

54'

Jeferson← Diogo Hereda

61'

RenatinhoPenalty

65'

Matheus Carvalho← Rhaldney

65'

Marciel← Matheus Jesus

68'

Giovanny← Jean Carlos

73'

RildoGoal Disallowed - offside

75'

Gabriel Poveda← Rildo

87'

Junior Tavares↳ Matheus Carvalho

90+4'

João Siqueira← Diego

90'

Rone← Renatinho

90+1'

Caio Rangel← Patrick

90+3'

Leandro Camilo↳ Caio Rangel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrasilNautico

Overview

35%Possession65%

14Total Shots15

4Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots15

8On Target7

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

8Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

215Total Passes399

150Accurate Passes325

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides0

Serie B: Brasil DE Pelotas 3–2 Nautico Recife

Brasil DE Pelotas beat Nautico Recife 3-2 in Serie B on October 29, 2021.

Goals: Renatinho (5', 61' pen), Vinícius (28'), Junior Tavares (87'), Leandro Camilo (90+3').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.

Brasil DE Pelotas vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Brasil DE Pelotas 3–2 Nautico Recife