Nautico Recife 3–1 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Acreano

Jobson 79'

Dudu 49' (pen)

Assis 41'

Rafael Barros 37'

6/30/2018

Serie C · Round 12Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nautico Recife67%

×Draw21%

Atlético Acreano12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.67

Nautico Recife

1.91

Atlético Acreano

0.67

Nautico Recife creates 185% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.70

creates per match

0.53

0.81

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.70

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.81

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

88%

Nautico Recife or Atlético Acreano

79%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

33%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

41%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

85%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

57%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

30%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

84%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.70 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Nautico Recife defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

67%

level

21%

Atlético Acreano scores more

12%

Nautico Recife at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Rafael Barros

41'

Assis

49'

DuduPenalty

59'

Araújo Jordão← Matheus

59'

Marcos Willard← Kássio

60'

Igor Leandro← Tauã

64'

Camacho← Rafael Ribeiro

70'

Jobson← Lelê

79'

Jobson

80'

Tharcysio← Dudu

Nautico

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Dudu

Robinho

Manager: Márcio Goiano

64'▲Camacho←▼Rafael Ribeiro

70'▲Jobson←▼Lelê

80'▲Tharcysio←▼Dudu

Nautico Recife substitutes

CamachoJobsonTharcysioCarlosBrenoAraújoJiménezTimbóMedinaAssisPotiguarCosta

Manager: Alvaro

59'▲Araújo Jordão←▼Matheus

59'▲Marcos Willard←▼Kássio

60'▲Igor Leandro←▼Tauã

Atlético Acreano substitutes

JordãoWillardLeandroBabauDouglasJefersonHenriqueTanqueReginaldoTragodaraWilson

Serie C: Nautico Recife 3–1 Atlético Acreano

Nautico Recife beat Atlético Acreano 3-1 in Serie C on June 30, 2018.

Goals: Rafael Barros (37'), Assis (41'), Dudu (49' pen), Jobson (79').

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco).

Nautico Recife vs Atlético Acreano — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Nautico Recife 3–1 Atlético Acreano