Atlético Acreano 1–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

Eduardo 54'

4/29/2018

Serie C · Round 3Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Acreano43%

×Draw27%

Nautico Recife30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.12

Atlético Acreano

1.38

Nautico Recife

1.12

Atlético Acreano creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Nautico Recife

1.12

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Nautico Recife

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

70%

Atlético Acreano or Nautico Recife

73%

Draw or Nautico Recife

57%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

20%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

16%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

67%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

31%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

58%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

43%

level

27%

Nautico Recife scores more

30%

Atlético Acreano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Januário← Jeferson

46'

Jobson← Rafael Ribeiro

54'

Eduardo

58'

Junior Timbó← Jhonnatan

65'

Wilson← Leandro

70'

Tharcysio← Fernandinho

77'

Araújo Jordão← Matheus

Atlético

Nautico

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Alvaro

18'▲Januário←▼Jeferson

65'▲Wilson←▼Leandro

77'▲Araújo Jordão←▼Matheus

Atlético Acreano substitutes

JanuárioWilsonJordãoAncelmoBabauGeovaniLeandroHenriqueWillardFerroTanqueReginaldo

Manager: Roberto Fernandes

46'▲Jobson←▼Rafael Ribeiro

58'▲Junior Timbó←▼Jhonnatan

70'▲Tharcysio←▼Fernandinho

Nautico Recife substitutes

JobsonTimbóTharcysioDuduKevynCarlosMedinaAssis