Nautico Hacoaj 3–2 Juventud de Bernal

Nautico Hacoaj

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventud de Bernal

3/14/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 4Estadio Club Náutico Hacoaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Nautico Hacoaj50%

×Draw26%

Juventud de Bernal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico HacoajExpected goals in this matchJuventud de Bernal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Nautico Hacoaj

1.53

Juventud de Bernal

1.00

Nautico Hacoaj creates 53% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Nautico Hacoaj

1.29

Juventud de Bernal

0.95

allows per match

Nautico Hacoaj

1.05

Juventud de Bernal

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Hacoaj+0.00on par

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Hacoaj ↓

Juventud de Bernal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nautico Hacoaj or draw

75%

Nautico Hacoaj or Juventud de Bernal

74%

Draw or Juventud de Bernal

50%

Winning margin

Nautico Hacoaj wins by 2+

25%

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nautico Hacoaj 1+ goals

78%

Nautico Hacoaj 2+ goals

45%

Nautico Hacoaj 3+ goals

20%

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals

63%

Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals

26%

Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nautico Hacoaj (draw refunded)

67%

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Hacoaj at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

Juventud de Bernal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Hacoaj attack 1.29 + Juventud de Bernal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.95 + Nautico Hacoaj defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nautico Hacoaj scores more

50%

level

26%

Juventud de Bernal scores more

25%

Nautico Hacoaj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nautico Hacoaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff