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Juventud de Bernal vs Nautico Hacoaj — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Juventud de Bernal
Juventud de Bernal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nautico Hacoaj
Nautico Hacoaj
8/10/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 4Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Juventud de Bernal11%
×Draw22%
Nautico Hacoaj67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud de Bernal
0.53
Nautico Hacoaj
1.76

Nautico Hacoaj creates 232% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Juventud de Bernal
0.57
Nautico Hacoaj
1.27

allows per match

Juventud de Bernal
2.24
Nautico Hacoaj
0.50

finishing

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par
Nautico Hacoaj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud de Bernal ↓

Nautico Hacoaj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–216%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juventud de Bernal or draw
33%
Juventud de Bernal or Nautico Hacoaj
78%
Draw or Nautico Hacoaj
89%

Winning margin

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+
2%
Nautico Hacoaj wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals
41%
Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals
10%
Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals
2%
Nautico Hacoaj 1+ goals
83%
Nautico Hacoaj 2+ goals
52%
Nautico Hacoaj 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)
14%
Nautico Hacoaj (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud de Bernal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Nautico Hacoaj away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.57 + Nautico Hacoaj defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Nautico Hacoaj attack 1.27 + Juventud de Bernal defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Juventud de Bernal scores more
11%
level
22%
Nautico Hacoaj scores more
67%

Nautico Hacoaj at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nautico Hacoaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Juventud de Bernal 0–0 Nautico Hacoaj

Juventud de Bernal and Nautico Hacoaj drew 0-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Norman Lee in Berazategui, Provincia de Buenos Aires.