Náuas 1–5 Humaitá: Result & Stats | League #520

Náuas

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Humaitá

4/7/2022

League #520 · 2nd Phase - 1Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Náuas3%

×Draw10%

Humaitá87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáuasExpected goals in this matchHumaitá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.40

2.85

Náuas

0.40

Humaitá

2.85

Humaitá creates 613% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

0.55

creates per match

3.25

2.45

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Náuas

0.55

Humaitá

3.25

allows per match

Náuas

2.45

Humaitá

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náuas+0.00on par

Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náuas ↓

Humaitá →

0–04%

0–111%

0–216%

0–315%

0–411%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Náuas or draw

13%

Náuas or Humaitá

90%

Draw or Humaitá

97%

Winning margin

Náuas wins by 2+

Humaitá wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

Náuas 1+ goals

33%

Náuas 2+ goals

Náuas 3+ goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

94%

Humaitá 2+ goals

77%

Humaitá 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Náuas (draw refunded)

Humaitá (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náuas at home — creates 0.55, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Humaitá away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náuas attack 0.55 + Humaitá defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.40

Humaitá attack 3.25 + Náuas defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Náuas scores more

level

10%

Humaitá scores more

87%

Humaitá at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Humaitá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff