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Humaitá vs Náuas — League #520 2026

Humaitá
Humaitá
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Náuas
Náuas
3/16/2024League #520League #520 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Humaitá67%
×Draw19%
Náuas14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humaitá
2.22
Náuas
0.89

Humaitá creates 149% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Humaitá
2.00
Náuas
0.78

allows per match

Humaitá
1.00
Náuas
2.44

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par
Náuas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Náuas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw
86%
Humaitá or Náuas
81%
Draw or Náuas
33%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+
44%
Náuas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals
89%
Humaitá 2+ goals
65%
Humaitá 3+ goals
38%
Náuas 1+ goals
59%
Náuas 2+ goals
22%
Náuas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)
83%
Náuas (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Náuas away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 2.00 + Náuas defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.22

Náuas attack 0.78 + Humaitá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Humaitá scores more
67%
level
19%
Náuas scores more
14%

Humaitá at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Humaitá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humaitá vs Náuas

Humaitá beat Náuas 4-0 in League #520 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.