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Nations vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karela
Karela
4/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nations56%
×Draw28%
Karela16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.37
Karela
0.59

Nations creates 132% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Karela
1.31

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nations or draw
84%
Nations or Karela
72%
Draw or Karela
44%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
28%
Karela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
75%
Nations 2+ goals
40%
Nations 3+ goals
16%
Karela 1+ goals
45%
Karela 2+ goals
12%
Karela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
78%
Karela (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Karela attack 0.61 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nations scores more
56%
level
28%
Karela scores more
16%

Nations at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nations vs Karela

Nations beat Karela 1-0 in Premier League on April 7, 2025.

The match was played at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex in Abrankese.