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Karela vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nations
Nations
5/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Karela50%
×Draw31%
Nations20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.19
Nations
0.63

Karela creates 89% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Nations
0.98

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Karela or draw
80%
Karela or Nations
69%
Draw or Nations
50%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
22%
Nations wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
70%
Karela 2+ goals
33%
Karela 3+ goals
12%
Nations 1+ goals
47%
Nations 2+ goals
13%
Nations 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
72%
Nations (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nations attack 0.53 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karela scores more
50%
level
31%
Nations scores more
20%

Karela at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Nations

Karela beat Nations 1-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex in Nalerigu.