Nations 2–2 Bofoakwe Tano: Result & Stats

Nations

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bofoakwe Tano

P. Acquah 86'

B. Baah 46'

B. A. Emmanuel 83'

C. Mensah 15'

4/14/2024

Premier League · Round 26Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nations56%

×Draw28%

Bofoakwe Tano16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NationsExpected goals in this matchBofoakwe Tano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.58

Nations

1.36

Bofoakwe Tano

0.58

Nations creates 134% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

0.59

0.57

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Nations

1.43

Bofoakwe Tano

0.59

allows per match

Nations

0.57

Bofoakwe Tano

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nations+0.00on par

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nations or draw

84%

Nations or Bofoakwe Tano

72%

Draw or Bofoakwe Tano

44%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+

28%

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals

74%

Nations 2+ goals

39%

Nations 3+ goals

16%

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

44%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

12%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)

78%

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nations scores more

56%

level

28%

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

16%

Nations at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

C. Mensah

36'

Missed penalty

41'

A. Boateng Afriyie

46'

B. Baah

60'

I. Baffoe← I. Baffoe

64'

P. Acquah← P. Acquah

67'

N. Sulemana← N. Sulemana

73'

K. Ampoful

76'

C. Baffour← C. Baffour

76'

S. Obilitey← S. Obilitey

80'

P. Badu← P. Badu

83'

B. A. Emmanuel

86'

P. Acquah

90+5'

I. Asare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff