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Bofoakwe Tano vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nations
Nations
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano35%
×Draw37%
Nations28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bofoakwe Tano
0.81
Nations
0.68

Bofoakwe Tano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.65
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.82
Nations
0.98

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw
72%
Bofoakwe Tano or Nations
63%
Draw or Nations
65%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
12%
Nations wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
56%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
19%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
5%
Nations 1+ goals
49%
Nations 2+ goals
15%
Nations 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
56%
Nations (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Nations attack 0.53 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more
35%
level
37%
Nations scores more
28%

Bofoakwe Tano at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bofoakwe Tano vs Nations

Bofoakwe Tano beat Nations 1-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.