Nations 1–1 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

Nations

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Berekum Chelsea

3/29/2026

Premier League · Round 27Kwame Kyei sports complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nations58%

×Draw26%

Berekum Chelsea16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NationsExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.65

Nations

1.50

Berekum Chelsea

0.65

Nations creates 131% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 108 away

1.43

creates per match

0.73

0.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Nations

1.43

Berekum Chelsea

0.73

allows per match

Nations

0.57

Berekum Chelsea

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nations+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nations or draw

84%

Nations or Berekum Chelsea

74%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

42%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+

30%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals

78%

Nations 2+ goals

44%

Nations 3+ goals

19%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

48%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

14%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)

78%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nations scores more

58%

level

26%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

16%

Nations at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff