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Berekum Chelsea vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nations
Nations
4/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Berekum Chelsea51%
×Draw32%
Nations18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.15
Nations
0.55

Berekum Chelsea creates 109% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Nations
0.98

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
82%
Berekum Chelsea or Nations
68%
Draw or Nations
49%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
22%
Nations wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
68%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
32%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
11%
Nations 1+ goals
42%
Nations 2+ goals
11%
Nations 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
74%
Nations (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nations attack 0.53 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
51%
level
32%
Nations scores more
18%

Berekum Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Chelsea vs Nations

Berekum Chelsea beat Nations 1-0 in Premier League on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.