Nations 1–0 Accra Lions: Result & Stats

Nations

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accra Lions

B. Baah 45+3'

5/17/2024

Premier League · Round 30Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nations60%

×Draw26%

Accra Lions14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NationsExpected goals in this matchAccra Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.57

Nations

1.50

Accra Lions

0.57

Nations creates 163% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.43

creates per match

0.58

0.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Nations

1.43

Accra Lions

0.58

allows per match

Nations

0.57

Accra Lions

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nations+0.00on par

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Accra Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nations or draw

86%

Nations or Accra Lions

74%

Draw or Accra Lions

40%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+

32%

Accra Lions wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals

78%

Nations 2+ goals

44%

Nations 3+ goals

19%

Accra Lions 1+ goals

43%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

11%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)

81%

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nations scores more

60%

level

26%

Accra Lions scores more

14%

Nations at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

45+3'

B. Baah

57'

B. Dankwah← B. Dankwah

57'

B. Kesse← B. Kesse

66'

76'

A. Abubakari← A. Abubakari

81'

F. Asante← F. Asante

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff