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Accra Lions vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nations
Nations
12/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Accra Lions47%
×Draw31%
Nations22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.15
Nations
0.69

Accra Lions creates 67% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Nations
0.98

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
78%
Accra Lions or Nations
69%
Draw or Nations
53%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
20%
Nations wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
68%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
32%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
11%
Nations 1+ goals
50%
Nations 2+ goals
15%
Nations 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
68%
Nations (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nations attack 0.53 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Accra Lions scores more
47%
level
31%
Nations scores more
22%

Accra Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Accra Lions 0–1 Nations

Nations beat Accra Lions 1-0 in Premier League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.