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National Bank of Egypt vs Pyramids FC — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
1/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Al-Shorta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

National Bank of Egypt30%
×Draw27%
Pyramids FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.10
Pyramids FC
1.40

Pyramids FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 129 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
Pyramids FC
1.61

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
Pyramids FC
0.94

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
56%
National Bank of Egypt or Pyramids FC
73%
Draw or Pyramids FC
70%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
12%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
67%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
30%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
10%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
75%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
41%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
40%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
30%
level
27%
Pyramids FC scores more
44%

Pyramids FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: National Bank of Egypt vs Pyramids FC

National Bank of Egypt and Pyramids FC drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 8, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Shorta Stadium in Cairo.