National Bank of Egypt 5–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

National Bank of Egypt

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

6/24/2024

Premier League · Round 27WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

National Bank of Egypt55%

×Draw24%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

National Bank of EgyptExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.92

National Bank of Egypt

1.69

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.92

National Bank of Egypt creates 84% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.65

1.19

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt

1.26

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw

80%

National Bank of Egypt or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

76%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

45%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

30%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

82%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

50%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

24%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

60%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

23%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

73%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.69

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more

55%

level

24%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

20%

National Bank of Egypt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff