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Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs National Bank of Egypt — Premier League 2018

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
12/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla32%
×Draw26%
National Bank of Egypt42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.19
National Bank of Egypt
1.42

National Bank of Egypt creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.18
National Bank of Egypt
1.14

allows per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.71
National Bank of Egypt
1.19

finishing

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par
National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ↓

National Bank of Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or draw
58%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or National Bank of Egypt
74%
Draw or National Bank of Egypt
68%

Winning margin

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+
13%
National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals
70%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals
33%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals
12%
National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
76%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
41%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)
43%
National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 1.18 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more
32%
level
26%
National Bank of Egypt scores more
42%

National Bank of Egypt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs National Bank of Egypt

National Bank of Egypt beat Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-0 in Premier League on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at El Mahalla Stadium in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.