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National Bank of Egypt vs AL Masry — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AL Masry
AL Masry
5/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 8New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

National Bank of Egypt35%
×Draw28%
AL Masry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.16
AL Masry
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 127 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
AL Masry
1.19

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
AL Masry
1.06

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
AL Masry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

AL Masry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
63%
National Bank of Egypt or AL Masry
72%
Draw or AL Masry
65%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
15%
AL Masry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
69%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
32%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
11%
AL Masry 1+ goals
70%
AL Masry 2+ goals
33%
AL Masry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
49%
AL Masry (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

AL Masry away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + AL Masry defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

AL Masry attack 1.19 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
35%
level
28%
AL Masry scores more
37%

AL Masry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: National Bank of Egypt vs AL Masry

AL Masry beat National Bank of Egypt 1-0 in Premier League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at New Suez Stadium in Suez.