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Naters vs Lausanne Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Naters
Naters
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
8/5/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Sportanlage Stapfen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Naters39%
×Draw23%
Lausanne Sport II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naters
1.65
Lausanne Sport II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 58 away

creates per match

Naters
1.77
Lausanne Sport II
1.83

allows per match

Naters
1.44
Lausanne Sport II
1.53

finishing

Naters+0.00on par
Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naters ↓

Lausanne Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Naters or draw
62%
Naters or Lausanne Sport II
77%
Draw or Lausanne Sport II
61%

Winning margin

Naters wins by 2+
19%
Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Naters 1+ goals
81%
Naters 2+ goals
49%
Naters 3+ goals
23%
Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
81%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
49%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Naters (draw refunded)
50%
Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naters at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naters attack 1.77 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Naters defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naters scores more
39%
level
23%
Lausanne Sport II scores more
38%

Naters at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naters vs Lausanne Sport II

Naters beat Lausanne Sport II 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Stapfen in Naters.