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Lausanne Sport II vs Naters — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Naters
Naters
5/2/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lausanne Sport II56%
×Draw21%
Naters23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne Sport II
2.15
Naters
1.33

Lausanne Sport II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lausanne Sport II
2.57
Naters
1.48

allows per match

Lausanne Sport II
1.19
Naters
1.74

finishing

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par
Naters+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne Sport II ↓

Naters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lausanne Sport II or draw
77%
Lausanne Sport II or Naters
79%
Draw or Naters
44%

Winning margin

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
34%
Naters wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
88%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
63%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
36%
Naters 1+ goals
74%
Naters 2+ goals
38%
Naters 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
71%
Naters (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne Sport II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Naters away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne Sport II attack 2.57 + Naters defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.15

Naters attack 1.48 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lausanne Sport II scores more
56%
level
21%
Naters scores more
23%

Lausanne Sport II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne Sport II vs Naters

Lausanne Sport II beat Naters 5-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.