Nassaji Mazandaran 1–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

12/29/2021

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran42%

×Draw32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.75

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.75

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 41% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 74 away

0.87

creates per match

0.45

1.05

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.45

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

75%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Naft Masjed Soleyman

68%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

58%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

17%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

65%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

29%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

9%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

53%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

17%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

62%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

42%

level

32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

25%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff