Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Nassaji Mazandaran — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
4/3/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman36%
×Draw31%
Nassaji Mazandaran33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.03
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 105 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.83

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.21

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
67%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Nassaji Mazandaran
69%
Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran
64%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
14%
Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
64%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
28%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
9%
Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
62%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
26%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
52%
Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
36%
level
31%
Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
33%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Nassaji Mazandaran

Nassaji Mazandaran beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.