Nassaji Mazandaran 2–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mumbai City

H. Nongtdu 32' (OG)

M. Azadi 14'

11/28/2023

AFC Champions League · Group D - 5Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran58%

×Draw21%

Mumbai City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.17

Nassaji Mazandaran

2.08

Mumbai City

1.17

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 78% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

2.00

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.00

Mumbai City

0.33

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

2.00

Mumbai City

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

79%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Mumbai City

79%

Draw or Mumbai City

42%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

35%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

87%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

61%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

34%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

69%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

33%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

73%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 1.00 + Mumbai City defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

58%

level

21%

Mumbai City scores more

21%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

E. Babaei

Nassaji Mazandaran · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

Rahul Bheke

14'

M. Azadi↳ A. Janmaleki

32'

H. NongtduOwn goal

35'

Halen Nongtdu

55'

F. Esmaeili← M. Abbasi

57'

S. Stalin← H. Nongtdu

65'

A. Chhikara← G. Singh

67'

Amir Mehdi JanmalekiCard upgrade

68'

Amir Mehdi Janmaleki

79'

Ehsan Hosseini

79'

M. Abdi← M. Torabi

79'

H. Zamehran← M. Azadi

85'

F. Nazareth← B. Singh

85'

J. Rane← V. Rai

89'

M. Rezaei← M. Ghaed Rahmati

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NassajiMumbai

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots5

7Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots5

2On Target0

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

549Total Passes403

465Accurate Passes323

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1