Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mumbai City vs Nassaji Mazandaran — AFC Champions League 2018

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
9/18/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Shree Shiv Chhatrapati Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mumbai City22%
×Draw27%
Nassaji Mazandaran51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
0.83
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.42

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
0.33
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.33

allows per match

Mumbai City
1.50
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.33

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par
Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
49%
Mumbai City or Nassaji Mazandaran
73%
Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran
78%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
7%
Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
56%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
20%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
5%
Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
76%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
41%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
30%
Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 1.33 + Mumbai City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mumbai City scores more
22%
level
27%
Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
51%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mumbai City vs Nassaji Mazandaran

Nassaji Mazandaran beat Mumbai City 2-0 in AFC Champions League on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Shree Shiv Chhatrapati Sports Complex in Pune.