Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Foolad FC

6/1/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran35%

×Draw32%

Foolad FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.95

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.97

Foolad FC

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 116 away

0.87

creates per match

0.84

1.05

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Foolad FC

0.84

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Foolad FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

66%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Foolad FC

68%

Draw or Foolad FC

65%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

13%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

62%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

25%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

7%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

61%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

25%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

51%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

35%

level

32%

Foolad FC scores more

34%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff