Foolad FC 2–0 Nassaji Mazandaran: Result & Stats

Foolad FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nassaji Mazandaran

4/6/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Foolad FC43%

×Draw31%

Nassaji Mazandaran26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foolad FCExpected goals in this matchNassaji Mazandaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.79

Foolad FC

1.12

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.79

Foolad FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 105 away

1.03

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Foolad FC

1.03

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.83

allows per match

Foolad FC

0.75

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw

74%

Foolad FC or Nassaji Mazandaran

69%

Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran

57%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+

18%

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals

67%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

31%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

10%

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

55%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

19%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

63%

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Foolad FC scores more

43%

level

31%

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

26%

Foolad FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 2–0 Nassaji Mazandaran

Foolad FC beat Nassaji Mazandaran 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.

Foolad FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 2–0 Nassaji Mazandaran