Nassaji Mazandaran 2–2 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Esteghlal FC

9/20/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran25%

×Draw30%

Esteghlal FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.18

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.81

Esteghlal FC

1.18

Esteghlal FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 116 away

0.87

creates per match

1.30

1.05

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Esteghlal FC

1.30

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Esteghlal FC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

55%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Esteghlal FC

70%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

75%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

8%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

56%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

19%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

5%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

69%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

33%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

36%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

25%

level

30%

Esteghlal FC scores more

45%

Esteghlal FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff