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Esteghlal FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
12/19/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 13Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Esteghlal FC50%
×Draw29%
Nassaji Mazandaran21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.31
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.73

Esteghlal FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 105 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.42
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.83

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.63
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.21

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
79%
Esteghlal FC or Nassaji Mazandaran
71%
Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran
50%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
24%
Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
73%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
38%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
14%
Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
52%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
17%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
71%
Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
50%
level
29%
Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
21%

Esteghlal FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal FC 4–0 Nassaji Mazandaran

Esteghlal FC beat Nassaji Mazandaran 4-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.