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Nassaji Mazandaran vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
10/3/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group D - 2Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran18%
×Draw21%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.98
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.02

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 39 away

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
1.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.05

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
2.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.97

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw
39%
Nassaji Mazandaran or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
79%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
82%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
6%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
62%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
26%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
8%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
87%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
60%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 1.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
18%
level
21%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
61%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nassaji Mazandaran 0–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Nassaji Mazandaran 3-0 in AFC Champions League on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.