Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Nassaji Mazandaran

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nassaji Mazandaran

Salem Al Dawsari 54'

Michael 4'

M. Ghaed Rahmati 77'

12/4/2023

AFC Champions League · Group D - 6Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC54%

×Draw23%

Nassaji Mazandaran23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCExpected goals in this matchNassaji Mazandaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.78

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 3 away

2.23

creates per match

1.33

0.78

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.23

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.33

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.78

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw

77%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Nassaji Mazandaran

77%

Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran

46%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

30%

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

53%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

26%

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

65%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

29%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

71%

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 1.33 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

54%

level

23%

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Salem Al Dawsari

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

Michael↳ Mohammed Al Burayk

33'

Saleh Al-ShehriPenalty cancelled

42'

Mahmoud Ghaed Rahmati

45+1'

Abdullah Al-Hamdan

46'

Habib Al Watyan← Y. Bounou

54'

Salem Al Dawsari↳ Abdullah Al Hamddan

55'

Nono← M. Abdi

57'

Habib Al-Wutaian

60'

A. Mitrović← Saleh Al Shehri

61'

S. Milinković-Savić← Abdullah Al Hamddan

65'

Vahid Mohammadzadeh

66'

M. Seifi← S. Gholamalibeigi

66'

M. Torabi← E. Babaei

67'

F. Esmaeili← H. Zamehran

77'

M. Ghaed Rahmati

84'

Salman Al-Faraj

84'

Abdulelah Al Malki← Salman Al Faraj

84'

Khalifah Al Dawsari← K. Koulibaly

87'

M. Rezaei← S. Hardani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-HilalNassaji

Overview

70%Possession30%

12Total Shots6

3Corners4

16Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target3

4Off Target2

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

678Total Passes274

599Accurate Passes185

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2