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NAŠK Našice vs Graničar Županja — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
2 – 1
Graničar Županja
Graničar Županja
5/10/2025League #217League #217 · East - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NAŠK Našice59%
×Draw24%
Graničar Županja17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.73
Graničar Županja
0.81

NAŠK Našice creates 114% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.12
Graničar Županja
0.33

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.28
Graničar Županja
2.33

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Graničar Županja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Graničar Županja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
83%
NAŠK Našice or Graničar Županja
76%
Draw or Graničar Županja
41%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
33%
Graničar Županja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
82%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
52%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
25%
Graničar Županja 1+ goals
56%
Graničar Županja 2+ goals
19%
Graničar Županja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
77%
Graničar Županja (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Graničar Županja away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.12 + Graničar Županja defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Graničar Županja attack 0.33 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
59%
level
24%
Graničar Županja scores more
17%

NAŠK Našice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "NAŠK Našice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAŠK Našice vs Graničar Županja

NAŠK Našice beat Graničar Županja 2-1 in League #217 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.