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Graničar Županja vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Graničar Županja
Graničar Županja
FT
1 – 0
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
3/10/2024League #217League #217 · East - 18Spomen Stadion Prve Nogometne Lopte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Graničar Županja63%
×Draw26%
NAŠK Našice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Graničar Županja
1.46
NAŠK Našice
0.43

Graničar Županja creates 240% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Graničar Županja
0.67
NAŠK Našice
0.86

allows per match

Graničar Županja
0.00
NAŠK Našice
2.25

finishing

Graničar Županja+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Graničar Županja ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Graničar Županja or draw
89%
Graničar Županja or NAŠK Našice
74%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
37%

Winning margin

Graničar Županja wins by 2+
33%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Graničar Županja 1+ goals
77%
Graničar Županja 2+ goals
43%
Graničar Županja 3+ goals
18%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
35%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
7%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Graničar Županja (draw refunded)
85%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Graničar Županja at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Graničar Županja attack 0.67 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Graničar Županja defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Graničar Županja scores more
63%
level
26%
NAŠK Našice scores more
11%

Graničar Županja at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Graničar Županja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Graničar Županja vs NAŠK Našice

Graničar Županja beat NAŠK Našice 1-0 in League #217 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Spomen Stadion Prve Nogometne Lopte in Županja.