NAŠK Našice 0–2 Čepin: Result & Stats | League #217

NAŠK Našice

FT

0 – 2

Čepin

11/4/2023

League #217 · East - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NAŠK Našice30%

×Draw30%

Čepin40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAŠK NašiceExpected goals in this matchČepin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.15

NAŠK Našice

0.96

Čepin

1.15

Čepin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

NAŠK Našice

1.25

Čepin

1.00

allows per match

NAŠK Našice

1.29

Čepin

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Čepin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Čepin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw

60%

NAŠK Našice or Čepin

70%

Draw or Čepin

70%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+

11%

Čepin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals

62%

NAŠK Našice 2+ goals

25%

NAŠK Našice 3+ goals

7%

Čepin 1+ goals

68%

Čepin 2+ goals

32%

Čepin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)

43%

Čepin (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Čepin away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Čepin defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Čepin attack 1.00 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more

30%

level

30%

Čepin scores more

40%

Čepin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Čepin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff