Čepin 2–0 NAŠK Našice: Result & Stats | League #217

Čepin

FT

2 – 0

NAŠK Našice

4/8/2023

League #217 · East - 22Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Čepin75%

×Draw18%

NAŠK Našice8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČepinExpected goals in this matchNAŠK Našice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.53

Čepin

2.13

NAŠK Našice

0.53

Čepin creates 302% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

0.86

0.20

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Čepin

2.00

NAŠK Našice

0.86

allows per match

Čepin

0.20

NAŠK Našice

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čepin+0.00on par

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čepin ↓

NAŠK Našice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Čepin or draw

92%

Čepin or NAŠK Našice

82%

Draw or NAŠK Našice

25%

Winning margin

Čepin wins by 2+

49%

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Čepin 1+ goals

88%

Čepin 2+ goals

63%

Čepin 3+ goals

35%

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals

41%

NAŠK Našice 2+ goals

10%

NAŠK Našice 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Čepin (draw refunded)

90%

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čepin at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čepin attack 2.00 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Čepin defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Čepin scores more

75%

level

18%

NAŠK Našice scores more

8%

Čepin at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Čepin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff