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Nashville vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Louisville City
Louisville City
10/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 58First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville42%
×Draw26%
Louisville City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.40
Louisville City
1.17

Nashville creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 130 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
69%
Nashville or Louisville City
74%
Draw or Louisville City
58%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
20%
Louisville City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
75%
Nashville 2+ goals
41%
Nashville 3+ goals
17%
Louisville City 1+ goals
69%
Louisville City 2+ goals
33%
Louisville City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
57%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nashville scores more
42%
level
26%
Louisville City scores more
31%

Nashville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville vs Louisville City

Nashville beat Louisville City 2-1 in USL Championship on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).