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Louisville City vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nashville
Nashville
7/6/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 32Louisville Slugger Field (Louisville, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Louisville City46%
×Draw25%
Nashville29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.53
Nashville
1.17

Louisville City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 34 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
71%
Louisville City or Nashville
75%
Draw or Nashville
54%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
23%
Nashville wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
78%
Louisville City 2+ goals
45%
Louisville City 3+ goals
20%
Nashville 1+ goals
69%
Nashville 2+ goals
33%
Nashville 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
61%
Nashville (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nashville attack 1.29 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Louisville City scores more
46%
level
25%
Nashville scores more
29%

Louisville City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 2–1 Nashville

Louisville City beat Nashville 2-1 in USL Championship on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Louisville Slugger Field (Louisville, Kentucky).