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Nashville vs Charlotte Independence — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
4/8/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 7First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville53%
×Draw25%
Charlotte Independence22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.62
Charlotte Independence
0.96

Nashville creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Charlotte Independence
1.17

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Charlotte Independence
1.57

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Charlotte Independence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
78%
Nashville or Charlotte Independence
75%
Draw or Charlotte Independence
47%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
28%
Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
80%
Nashville 2+ goals
48%
Nashville 3+ goals
22%
Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
62%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
25%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
70%
Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Charlotte Independence away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Charlotte Independence attack 1.17 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nashville scores more
53%
level
25%
Charlotte Independence scores more
22%

Nashville at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville vs Charlotte Independence

Nashville beat Charlotte Independence 2-0 in USL Championship on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).