Charlotte Independence 1–0 Nashville

Charlotte Independence

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nashville

9/1/2018

USL Championship · Round 45Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Charlotte Independence37%

×Draw26%

Nashville37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlotte IndependenceExpected goals in this matchNashville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.31

Charlotte Independence

1.32

Nashville

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

1.29

1.32

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Charlotte Independence

1.70

Nashville

1.29

allows per match

Charlotte Independence

1.32

Nashville

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlotte Independence ↓

Nashville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charlotte Independence or draw

63%

Charlotte Independence or Nashville

74%

Draw or Nashville

63%

Winning margin

Charlotte Independence wins by 2+

17%

Nashville wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Charlotte Independence 1+ goals

73%

Charlotte Independence 2+ goals

38%

Charlotte Independence 3+ goals

15%

Nashville 1+ goals

73%

Nashville 2+ goals

38%

Nashville 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)

50%

Nashville (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlotte Independence attack 1.70 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nashville attack 1.29 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Charlotte Independence scores more

37%

level

26%

Nashville scores more

37%

Charlotte Independence at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff